On Jan. 13, Professor Tommy Koh, who is Singapore's Ambassador-at-Large, spoke at Bank of Singapore's annual conference, Beyond 2020: Shifting Perspectives, where he spoke about his outlook for 2020.

He brought up the continued rise of Asia, a global movement to further women's rights, the deepening rivalry between the U.S. and China, and the worsening of three environmental crises, among other things.

We reproduce the full speech here.

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By Tommy Koh

I think the year 2020 will have both blue skies and stormy weather.

Since I am an optimist, let me begin with the three positive trends and developments.

Asia continues to rise

The first positive trend which I believe will continue in 2020 is the steady rise of Northeast and Southeast Asia. Although China’s growth rate has come down to about six per cent, this is still about three times faster than the US growth rate and five times faster than the EU’s growth rate.

If this trend continues, it is a matter of time before the Chinese economy will surpass that of the US economy in size. This is not surprising since China’s population is four times the size of that of the US. China’s per capita income of US$10,000 is far behind that of the US, which is US$64,000.

China is, however, a very bright spot in the world economy. This prognosis assumes that there will be no war between China and the United States. War is unlikely but not unthinkable.

The second bright spot is ASEAN. On average, the 10 economies of ASEAN are growing at about five per cent per annum. Collectively, the ASEAN economy is already the fifth largest in the world.

Many analysts predict that by 2030, the ASEAN economy will be the fourth largest in the world. In my speech to the IPS Bicentennial Conference, in October 2019, I had suggested the need for a whole-of-country reorientation to ASEAN.

Japan is Asia’s most advanced country. The people are highly educated and industrious. The private sector is vibrant and has produced some global champions.

Abenomics has, however, not produced the results Prime Minister Abe had envisaged because the Japanese economy is a mature economy, the population is ageing and shrinking and Japan is unwilling to import large numbers of foreign workers, as Singapore has done.

Japan is, nevertheless, the world’s third largest economy and is a source of creativity and innovation. My message to Japan is to come back to Southeast Asia.

South Korea is also a developed country with a mature economy and a shrinking population. It is the world’s 12th largest economy and has produced global champions, such as, Samsung. Its current growth rate is the same as that of the US, at about two per cent.

South Korea has considerable soft power. Korean music, television, movies and cuisine have been embraced by the world. We welcome President Moon Jae-In’s new South Policy, which aims to elevate Southeast Asia to the same importance as US and China and Japan.

Many countries continue to support free trade, the U.S. has gone over to the "Dark Side"

The second positive trend emerges from an ongoing struggle between two opposing forces.

There is a contest between free trade and protectionism, between unilateralism and multilateralism, between international cooperation and self-sufficiency, between globalization and economic nationalism and between the rule of law and the rule that might is right.

I will call the struggle as one between Light and Darkness. To use an analogy from Star Wars, I am sorry to say that the United States has gone over the Dark side.

Fortunately, the rest of the world has not followed the United States.

Thus, no other country has followed the United States out of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change or the Trans Pacific Partnership or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (TPCOA) on the Iran nuclear programme.

On the contrary, the countries of Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin-America continue to support free trade, regional economic integration and multilateralism.

A recent example is the mega free trade agreement, called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), concluded by the 10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

India has, unfortunately, decided not to join the agreement.

Women's rights are human rights

The third positive trend is the global movement to empower women, to end violence against women and to combat sexual harassment.

Women’s rights are human rights. The struggle by women for equality and justice is the longest struggle in the history of human rights.

In many parts of the world, including Asia, women are still treated as second class citizens, are frequently the victims of domestic violence and subject to sexual harassment, including rape, by men, especially, by men in power, in peace time and in war time.

Although I am a man, I support the struggle of women for equality and justice.

Relationship between the U.S. and China will continue to be rocky

The first negative trend is the continuing competition between the world’s first and second largest economics, namely, the United States and China. Although the two countries have reached a partial trade agreement, which will be signed on Jan. 15, 2020, this is not a game changer.

The new paradigm of US-China relations, is a comprehensive contest between the two countries for power and influence.

The best way to understand the new US policy towards China, which enjoys bi-partisan support, is to read the two important speeches of US Vice-President, Mike Pence, on China.

The first was delivered on Oct. 4, 2018 to the Hudson Institute and the second on Oct. 24, 2019 to the Woodrow Wilson Center.

What is the US policy towards China? It is to prevent China from becoming a superpower. It is to decouple these two economies. It is to frustrate China’s ambition to dominate 10 high technology industries by 2025. It is to stop China from making East Asia a Chinese sphere of influence.

If my analysis is correct, then I do not expect to see any fundamental improvement, in 2020, of the relations between Washington and Beijing. This will have ramifications for us.

For example, ASEAN, will find it increasingly difficult to be friends with both.

Governments lack political will to deal with climate emergency

The second negative trend is the accentuation of the three environmental crises which we face: (a) global warming and climate change; (b) the massive loss of biodiversity; and (c) the warming and acidification of the world’s oceans.

Of the three crises, the world’s attention has been focused primarily on global warming and climate change.

Notwithstanding the alarm bells rung by Greta Thunberg, the climate scientists and the UN, the governments of the world have been unable to summon the necessary political will to deal, decisively, with this climate emergency.

According to the experts, the national pledges made under the Paris Agreement, are not sufficient to enable us to cap the increase in global temperature to below two degree centigrade.

The 25th Conference of Parties of the UNFCCC (COP 25), held in Madrid, and chaired by Chile, was a disappointment. COP 26 will be held in Glasgow in 2020.

Socio-economic factors drive protests worldwide

The third negative development is the sudden eruption of mass protests in various parts of the worlds, including, France, Chile, Lebanon and Iran. What is the common thread which unites these movements? What are they protesting against?

They are protesting against the high cost of living. They are protesting against inequality and the unfairness of the system under which they live. They are protesting against the fact that the top one per cent of their countries own and earn more than the 99 per cent, put together.

They want a fairer distribution of wealth. They want their leaders to pay more attention to the welfare of the ordinary citizens.

I do not include Hong Kong in this group of countries because the objectives of the protest movement in Hong Kong are primarily political and not socio-economic.

However, we should not be complacent. All the ingredients are present in Asia: high cost of living, inequality and a widening gulf between the top one per cent and the rest. See the award-winning Korean movie, Parasites.

I shall conclude. My outlook for 2020 is that we will have both blue skies and stormy weather.

On balance, I think the positive will outweigh the negative. I believe that the world is becoming more peaceful, more prosperous and more equal.

If you do not believe me, I ask you to read a wonderful book, entitled, Factfulness, by Hans Rosling.

Top image from Tommy Koh's Facebook and Unsplash.